Markets & Business Models

Conflict affects prices through both energy supply and weaker demand Large shocks can activate uncertainty and expectation channels Policy needs a diagnosis of the mechanism rather than a conflict label

Chinese competitiveness combines manufacturing capability with state support Trade remedies need evidence about the distortion they address Critical-mineral dependence requires resilience as well as trade enforcement

Export controls can constrain AI capacity without halting progress Distillation transfers capabilities through a different channel Policy evaluation must separate benchmarks, deployment and enforcement Evidence th

Flexible and migrant labour helped subsidise China’s production-led growth Household consumption cannot deepen while income and social protection remain insecure Labour reform, hukou reform and local fiscal capacity must be treated as one policy problem

Adaptive systems can widen access to consistent instructional support Evidence of higher test performance does not yet establish transferable understanding Public adoption requires independent evaluation, qualified teachers and safeguards against unequal experimentation